Tuesday – September 3, 2019
Tic, Toc, Tic, Toc…..and we wait….waited for Dorian here in South Florida – preparing for the worst – watching as he pounded the Bahama’s – expecting the same for Florida’s Gold Coast – He parked himself over the Bahama’s killing at least 5 people and causing billions in damages…as of now – he is expected to make a hard right and travel up the coast line 140 miles off shore – moving onto the Carolina’s – -weakening as he goes….we can only hope….
Ok – so what a month it was – stocks collapsed only to surge then only to collapse again as investors tried to price in price in the risk while the algo’s just priced in the headlines…..causing both devastation and opportunity. Mkts whipping around over lack of clarity on the issues….think – trade, interest rates & global slowdown with a side of geo-politics – think BREXIT, unrest in Hong Kong, Italy, Argentina and the US – as all of those nations gear up for change (or not…). But it was the constant tension created by President Trump over what is next for US/Sino relations….that really drove the action….and that is what will continue to drive the action in September…..
As we wound down the week – volumes dropped and volatility rose as so many mkt participants – took advantage of the end of summer and the long holiday weekend. – stocks did snap a four day losing streak and by the end of the day Friday – the Dow closed up 41 pts, the S&P added 2. the Nasdaq lost 10 and the Russell lost 2 – as you could almost feel both the exhaustion during the month and the tension that was about to hit over a new set of tariffs that are about to be imposed on September 1st…and this is sure to cause a bit of a ‘storm’ once the mkts re-open on Tuesday – the 4th.
So – while Dorian hit parts of the Bahama’s – over the weekend – causing untold damage – Trumps additional tariffs hit China over the weekend and some of China’s retaliatory tariffs hit the US – and both appear to be ready to cause hurricane force winds in the mkts….The US hit China with an add’l 15% tariff on a variety of products – (Tech was left mostly unscathed as Trump doesn’t want to disrupt the holiday shopping season – after Timmy Cook – Apple CEO – pleaded with Donny to back off so that Apple could report another blowout qtr….a qtr that will be reported in January 2020). China for its part – did as Xi Xi said they would and and imposed tariffs of 5-10% on a variety of US goods exported to China – that include soy beans and crude oil….
And this suggests that the US and China are no closer to a resolution than we were last week, last month or even last year…..and the September meeting? Well – no news on that front either. Remember – China is celebrating the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China on October 1st……so – much of China’s focus will be that event along with the Party’s Fourth Plenum in the 19th Party Congress- which began in 2017 and runs thru 2022. …. – The Plenum is when the Politburo of the Communist Party of China (CCP) will meet to review and discuss broad China regulations as well as intra-CCP regultions…Plenary sessions convene to address pressing political issues and have been the birthplace of the most important political and historical shifts in Modern day China. It is a big event for China so we can expect that it will take precedence over any US/Sino trade talks – leaving the mkts aching for clarity and direction….
With Monday’s labor day holiday here in the states – the mkts had a day off – but they appear to be making up for it this overnight and this morning. Stock futures are off – Dow futures suggest a loss of 200 pts, the S&P is lower by 22 pts the Nasdaq is off by 59 pts and the Russell is lower by 13 pts…as you can rest assured that this is over the latest round of tariffs imposed over the weekend.. And these new tariffs are on top of the prior tariffs that Trump imposed in early 2018 – tariffs which have created tension – and tension that has sent global mkts on a roller coaster ride….over the last year…..at one point mkts appeared to ignore the noise and rise to new highs in 2019 only to get kicked in the gut – falling dramatically as summer turned to fall in 2019 – with little clarity in sight on trade, rates and the state of the global economy.
My gut still says that the path of least resistance is lower – until Trump sends a tweet saying that trade talks are going swimmingly…..and the algo’s once again react to the news. In the end – September/October can be volatile months – and with interest rates near all time lows – can the FED really put a floor under prices by lowering rates another 50 bps or is the mkt becoming numb? I guess we are about to find out…
I am still out of my office bldg – due to Dorian – hope to be all back to normal by tomorrow. Until then –
Take good care.
A great dish from this Island nation – well not really their own nation – but if you ask an Italian – Sicilians are Sicilians….Capisce?
Raisins, green olives, capers, pignoli nuts (pine nuts), tomatoes, garlic, onion, s&p, olive oil and the swordfish. This dish is easy to make – it will tease your senses – and tickle your pallet – only takes about 15 or 20 min’s to prepare and 20 min’s to cook….enough time to set the table, pour the wine, light the candles, put on the music and dim the lights…..
**Preheat oven to 400 degrees (f) and for my dear friend Stu in London that would be 200 degrees ©.
Season the swordfish with s&p.
Next soak the raisins in warm water for about ½ hr… drain and set aside.
Heat the olive oil in a sauté pan on med high heat….sauté the diced onion and crushed garlic until soft. Do Not Burn. Maybe like 5 / 8 min’s….add raisins, diced tomatoes, chopped olives (no pits!), and capers – like 1 tblspn. (If you like capers feel free to add a bit more – but not too much as the taste will overpower the dish). Reduce heat to simmer and cover…stirring occasionally….for about 15 min’s or so…
Place the swordfish in a baking dish and cover the fish with the raisin/olive/caper/tomato mixture – bake for 15 min’s or until the steaks are firm…..
Present the fish on a warmed plate with steamed green beans and a large mixed green salad with red onions, cucumbers, grape tomatoes, maybe some fresh mozzarella….dress with s&p, oregano, a splash of fresh lemon juice, balsamic vinegar and olive oil.